Hurrican Shutters

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El Nino Climate Changes

Posted by cat5shuttersllc on March 27, 2014

El Nino Climate ChangesA new report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center suggests changes could be on the way for weather patterns across the U.S. and the globe.

According to the report, the chance of an El Niño reemerging this year has increased. And, if the models from the report play out, that could mean fewer named storms in the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season and potential drought relief for parts of California later this year.

An El Niño cycle can occur every two to seven years, when weaker trade winds allow warmer water around the equator in the far eastern Pacific Ocean to emerge. That warmer water changes wind patterns and alters storm cycles around the globe.

In general, the eastern tropical Pacific ocean cycles between three phases: El Niño (warmer than average sea-surface temperatures), La Niña (cooler than average sea-surface temperatures) and a neutral phase in which sea-surface temperatures are generally near long-term averages.

Since spring 2012, the eastern Pacific ocean has been in the neutral phase, but according to the latest NOAA/CPC report, there’s now a 50 percent chance that equatorial waters in the Pacific will warm sufficiently to meet the criteria for an El Niño. As a result, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño Watch for summer 2014.
(MORE: NOAA: January 2014 Was 4th Warmest on Record)

Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, explains, “A watch simply means that conditions across the tropical Pacific are favorable for the development of El Niño during the next, roughly, three to six months.”
He noted that a watch doesn’t guarantee an El Niño will occur, but the models are leaning that way.

A plot of the model data listed in the report shows a marked warming trend in tropical Pacific waters by mid-summer. The average of all the models suggests a 0.5ºC temperature anomaly is probable around August.
According to Halpert, that would place this El Niño event on the weak end of the Climate Prediction Center’s spectrum.If El Niño Develops, It Might be Good News..
Researchers have found that instances of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes are usually reduced during an El Niño year. Based on the current model data, it appears that El Niño could develop near the height of the Atlantic hurricane season — potentially inhibiting some tropical development.
But Halpert said even with El Niño, strong tropical cyclones are still possible. “I always like to remind people of the 1992 hurricane season, which was an El Niño year and only featured seven named storms. But the first one was Andrew.”
Also, despite development of a weak El Niño, Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne raked parts of Florida during the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season.
If El Niño develops, beneficial rains could bring much-needed relief to some drought-stricken areas, most notably California.

If you need Hurricane protection contact CAT 5 Shutters, LLC. Call us toll free at 1-877-CAT-FIVE or visit us on the web at www.cat5shutters.net

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