Hurrican Shutters

Installing "Peace of Mind"

What is the link between hurricanes and global warming?

Posted by cat5shuttersllc on March 21, 2014

What is the link between hurricanes and global warming?…while water temperature is the most important factor in tropical cyclone dynamics, many other environmental factors affect these storms. These include: the deep warm water; moisture availibility; weak wind shear; a source of rotation, and no land interaction/landfall. Only when all these factors exist can a hurricane reach its maximum potential intensity for a given water temperature. In fact, few hurricanes reach their potential because some inhibiting factor exists. Furthermore, global warming could enhance some negative influences regionally; an ensemble of 18 global climate models show that wind shear and dry air will increase in the Atlantic, while in contrast the opposite occurs in the west Pacific where environmental factors favor more hurricanes. Therefore, anthropogenic warmer oceans do not necessarily correlate to increased tropical cyclone activity or stronger hurricanes globally. Climate models give mixed results on whether the average storm intensities will change, but most show evidence for some increase in intensity.

One inhibiting factor is the El Nino, a body of relatively warm equatorial water in the eastern Pacific. Absent for the past few years, it is expected to bring weak to moderately warm water to the South American west coast. A characteristic of El Nino is westerly winds in the upper troposphere that act to shear the tops off Atlantic easterly waves coming off the African Coast, preventing them from growing into named storms or hurricanes…
However, this (weak to moderate) El Nino will fall well short of the one that occurred in 2007, limiting the season’s total named storms to seven.
From William Gray’s 2001 hurricane forecast

Working in a strategically located lagoon off Puerto Rico, Donelly and Woodruff compiled the long record (cores, 2007) of strong hurricanes in the Atlantic region. The 5,000 year record identified two factors that appeared to heighten Atlantic activity: weak El Ninos in the tropical Pacific and strong monsoons in West Africa.
Scientists have established that strong El Ninos can stunt hurricane activity by causing strong high-altitude winds that inhibit hurricane formation.
Other reseaqrchers have identified that storms over western Africa generate atmospheric waves that move into the Atlantic and provide “seedlings” for hurricane development…

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