Hurrican Shutters

Installing "Peace of Mind"

T.D. Nine: Potential U.S. Threat?

Posted by cat5shuttersllc on August 21, 2012

T.D. Nine: Potential U.S. Threat?While Tropical Depression Nine is currently being propelled westward to the south of a sprawling high-pressure system in the Atlantic, there are signs that by this weekend a more northward movement may take shape.

A dip in the jet stream over the southeastern states is likely to provide an alleyway northward in the direction of the United States late week into the weekend.

This will be in response to a dip in the jet stream over the southeastern United States that will erode the western edge of this high and provide an “alleyway” to the north versus the current west and eventually west-northwest motion.

Unfortunately, it appears this northward turn will occur far enough to the west to put parts of the southeast United States at risk. However, there are questions about how soon or late this northward turn begins. The range of options vary from a later turn north with the system moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico to a sooner turn north over Florida or off of Florida’s eastern coast.

The bottom line is that if you live in the southeastern states, you should stay tuned into next week as the forecast becomes more certain and the exact impacts become more clear. South Florida could be one of the first locations affected as early as late this weekend.

What kind of potential impacts are we talking about here?

One element that can be in play with a system such as this regardless of how intense it becomes is heavy rainfall and possible flooding. In the immediate future, the northern Caribbean Islands will be at risk for flash flooding and mudslides.

To what extent wind and storm surge end up being a threat will depend on how much the tropical depression “develops”. Even though the official forecast is for the system to reach hurricane status, it may have to overcome some obstacles in its path.

If you noticed above, we’ve mentioned quite a few land areas that are potentially in the path of the system, which could inhibit development to some degree. As the system turns towards the southeast United States, it’s possible that it may also encounter less favorable winds aloft depending on the orientation of the jet stream dip over the southeastern states in relation to the system at that time.

Simply put, it’s too early to give any specifics. There are too many factors this far out in time that could change the forecast.

As always, stay tuned to The Weather Channel an weather.com in the days ahead as we update this forecast. The good news is that there is plenty of time to prepare for any potential impacts. Click here to see our Weather Ready hurricane safety tips.

Distributed by Viestly

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