Hurrican Shutters

Installing "Peace of Mind"

Predictions for Hurricane Season 2012

Posted by cat5shuttersllc on March 28, 2012

Predictions for Hurricane Season 2012As June 1, 2012 draws nearer, we will see the start of the 2012 Hurricane Season. This hub will focus on the Atlantic tropical cyclone formation, predictions and names.

The active hurricane season is from June 1 through November 30. One thing to keep in mind is that tropical cyclones can develop at any time of the year. It is during the official hurricane season, however, that we see the most development.

Overall, the predictions are not dire for 2012. The season is being forecast to be relatively tame. Forecasters seem to agree mostly that there is a probability of 12 named storms and out of the 12 named storms, seven possibly will develop into hurricanes.

Out of the seven hurricanes, three of these are being predicted to be “major” hurricanes in scope with winds sustaining 111 mph or more. This would place them at a minimum at Category 3 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Most the landfall models are predicting fairly close or normal landfall of storms along the United States coastline. The Gulf of Mexico coastline and the coastline of Florida are being given an elevated chance of landfall over the East Coast in 2012.

When on calculates the “averages” for the Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season, we come up with the numbers that reflect 12.1 tropical storms with 6.4 maturing into hurricanes annually.

As a Hurricane Ike survivor, I will be watching all tropical development this season, as I do every season, and will be posting on HubPages as storms develop and threaten land. Stay tuned for my next related hub that will encompass hurricane preparedness!

On March 05,2012, the National Hurricane Director Bill Read made a statement that science will improve enough so that starting in two to five years the forecasters will be able to reliably issue where a hurricane will be a full week in advance.

As it stands now the National Weather Service issues daily weather forecasts a week out, but not for hurricanes.

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane had above normal activity, providing NOAA with 383 official forecasts to analyze. NOAA concluded that when predicting where a hurricane will land, their five day forecast had an average error of only 281 miles and, expectantly, more accurate the closer in time to landfall. At 12 hours, forecasters set a new record for accuracy with an error rate of only 32 miles.

Below is the list of names for the storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2012, provided by the World Meteorological Organization.

Tropical Storm Names for 2012

Distributed by Viestly


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